Assessment of the state of the Ukraine War March 2023

Research by our Senior Researcher, Csaba Barnabás Horváth

In December, analysts expected major offensives on behalf of both combatants to occur during the winter. As the “Rasputitsa” mud season makes significant offensives impossible in Ukraine during most of the spring and autumn, major moves from both sides can be expected either during the summer, when the ground is dry, or during the winter, when it is frozen. Since April, Ukraine has been regaining more territory than the Russians manage to occupy by their new offensives. Initial Russian offensives in February and March 2022 achieved a net gain of 17,86% of the territory of Ukraine. Then the Russian reversal at Kyiv and the subsequent withdrawal from the region resulted in Russia relinquishing and Ukraine regaining a net 5,31% of the country by April 2022. May, June, July, and August 2022 were marked by renewed Russian offensives, which however managed to achieve a combined net gain of only 0,4% of the country. In the fall of 2022 came the Ukrainian counteroffensives near Kharkiv, and the Russian retreat from Kherson, which meant a combined net Ukrainian gain of 2,83% of the country.

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