Birth of a "New" or Rebirth of the "Same" Syria?

Following the fall of the dictator Bashar Al-Assad in December 2024, is Syria really building a new political order or is it simply recycling old patterns of rule under new labels?

This paper focuses on how Syria’s minorities are faring during the transition and what that reveals about the emerging state. The aim here is threefold: first, to assess the key developments affecting minorities since late 2024 security incidents, pressures to displace, and changes in local power arrangements; second, to consider what transitional governance and constitutional/legal measures are really offering in terms of citizenship, rights, and political participation; and third, to evaluate how these domestic dynamics are already affecting Syria’s regional environment (and Lebanon in particular).

The paper begins with a description of the historical context, with a special focus on the impact on minorities. It then examines the key events that have taken place in the country since late 2024. These events are assessed in relation to the positions of the various minorities. They are also considered in relation to Syria’s relations with its neighbours. The paper concludes with specific recommendations for Syria’s leaders and policy-makers.