How the war In Ukraine might end Part 1 - Some Potential Scenarios

Research by our Senior Researcher, Csaba Barnabás Horváth

This report examines possible scenarios that would come into play if Ukraine achieves a military breakthrough in the spring or summer campaign. The most plausible way to create a basis for conflict resolution would be a Ukrainian counterattack that reaches the Sea of Azov, thus cutting off Crimea from Russian military supplies. As most analysts expect a major Ukrainian counterattack during the late spring or summer of 2023 to occur in this direction, it is quite plausible that if a Ukrainian breakthrough happened, it would happen this way. And if it happens, the conflict will reach a turning point, enabling Ukraine and the West to suggest peace terms to Russia.

Download the full research here