Keystone Peacemakers: Can Azerbaijan and Hungary Help Foster Peace in Syria?

Syria’s fate has long been shaped by the ambitions of powerful external players. Russia and Iran once formed the backbone of Assad’s survival, Türkiye championed the rebels, and the United States propped up Kurdish forces, which Türkiye considers a terrorist group. Meanwhile, Israel, in its broader fight against Iranian influence, completely dismantled Hezbollah’s leadership and presence. Hence, the battlefield has shifted dramatically. With Iran weakened by Israel’s strategic strikes in Lebanon and Russia consumed by its war in Ukraine, the pillars of Assad’s support have crumbled. In a stunning turn, Syrian rebel forces launched an unprecedented offensive, capturing Damascus and key strongholds in mere days—reshaping the very foundation of the conflict. Now, Türkiye stands as the dominant power in Syria, determined to prevent the rise of a Kurdish statelet and forge a unitary state. Israel, seizing the moment, has expanded its control, securing strategic positions near the Golan Heights due to its security concerns in the region and its broader fight against Iranian influence. However, with relations between Ankara and Tel Aviv already inflamed by events in Gaza, Syria is teetering on the edge of a larger confrontation. Amidst this fragile and volatile landscape, a critical question emerges: Who can mediate between these deeply entrenched interests? Two unexpected but uniquely equipped actors—Hungary and Azerbaijan—may hold the answer:

- Hungary is the only EU and NATO member state that maintains a strategic partnership with Israel while also holding observer status in the Organization of Turkic States.

- Azerbaijan, on the other hand, is the only country that is a strategic partner of both Israel and Hungary while also being a treaty ally of both Russia and Türkiye.

Could Budapest and Baku redefine the future of Syria? As rising keystone states with the ability to navigate complex rivalries, they may hold the key to transforming the region’s chaos into fragile but lasting stability.