01/08/2024

Research

Peak China on the Horizon?

Analysis ouf our Senior Researcher Csaba Barnabás Horváth

Throughout the 2010s, many suggested the 21st century would be the ‘Chinese century’. By the mid-2020s however, major emerging structural factors indicate that China’s astonishing growth rates of the previous decades are no longer sustainable. These trends are so notable that they even provoke the question of how long Chinese GDP growth can remain above the global average. China's GDP growth falling and staying behind the global average would precipitate the shrinking of its share of global GDP. As a consequence, we might ask the question of when we will see ‘Peak China’.  Such a point may arrive sooner than most would believe.

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