The Future of European Security: Alternative Strategies

The rise of China and the consequent end of the unipolar world order is creating powerful incentives for the United States with draw down from Europe – and perhaps leave altogether. This would represent a massive change for Europe, and one that is not broadly understood.

Europe would face three risks in the event the United States withdrew from the continent. First, the return of intra-European security competition. Second, fragmentation as external powers used divide-and-rule tactics and turn Europe into a playing field. Third, a failure to emerge as an independent pole in the global system.

This paper seeks to achieve the following objectives: 
● Explain the role of the United States in building the security architecture of Europe 1945-present.

● Demonstrate that the withdrawal from Europe by the United States is driven by strategic imperatives that transcend any one presidential Administration.

● Explore in detail the three risks mentioned above.

The paper concludes by outlining a realistic and politically achievable policy solution that could mitigate the three risks. Crucially, it is a solution that would respect the sovereignty of individual nation states in Europe.

Andy Collingwood is the co-host of the Multipolarity Podcast, and a commentator on politics and geostrategy.