The Great Slowdown of China

Research of our Senior Fellow, Csaba Barnabás Horváth

China’s rise has been perhaps the single most important trend of global geopolitics during the first two decades of the 21st century. With its robust growth, China was expected to overtake the United States and become the strongest economy on the planet. China’s economic growth has already started to show signs of slowdown however in the late 2010s. As of 2023, new statistical data suggests that the era of China’s dramatic rise may already be over, we are reaching a period that can be called “peak China”, and China’s nominal GDP may never surpass that of the United States, as its long-term average growth rate may fall below that of the United States before it could surpass it.

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