The Transatlantic Relationship in the 'Age of Sovereignty'

The transatlantic relationship — between the United States (and Canada) on one hand and European countries on the other — is changing in an era that can be described as an “Age of Sovereignty”. Geopolitics is moving away from liberal internationalism toward much more transactional and sovereigntist approaches designed to benefit individual nation states rather than alliances.
This paper explains in detail the impact of the return of Donald Trump as U.S. President in 2025 and the publication of the United States’ new National Security Strategy (NSS). It also considers the significance of various geopolitical developments through 2025 and 2026. These developments include: the Munich Security Conferences of both years; greater friction in international trade relationships; the rise of sovereigntist ideas within the conservative movement worldwide as well as recent events in Venezuela, Greenland and Iran. The paper looks in depths at the relationships between the United States, countries in Europe and China. It considers various scenarios for Europe in the “Age of Sovereignty” including: rebalanced Atlanticism; European strategic autonomy; hedging by global powers and progressive fragmentation within Europe.
The paper identifies dilemmas for leaders in both Europe and the United States. In the former, there are rising expectations for strategic responsibility — but in a continent where foreign relations are handled by individual countries (and not necessarily in concert). In the latter, there is the possibility that a sovereigntist and transactional U.S. foreign policy will inadvertently accelerate the emergence of Europe as a distinct geopolitical pole — within a multi-polar system. The clear conclusion is that the impact of the “Age of Sovereignty” is still being defined.