Is Britain going to leave the EU?

A lunch discussion with Tim Montgomerie, 19th October 2015.

The topic of the lunch was the forthcoming referendum on British membership of the European Union. For the first time in several years, opinion surveys are suggesting that Britain may choose to leave the European Union when a referendum on the issue is held following negotiations on the terms of British membership.

The British Prime Minister is committed to holding the referendum before the end of 2017, although many observers believe that this could come earlier. Until recently, the polls suggested that the referendum would produce a vote to remain within the EU, but events in Greece, and Europe’s failure to find a common and credible solution to the migrant problem, have clearly had a significant impact on opinion. The polls now show a small majority in favour of leaving.

The Danube Institute's guest speaker at the event was Tim Montgomerie, a columnist and leader writer for The (London) Times, who described the factors that would influence the outcome of the referendum and determine Britain’s political future.

George Schöpflin MEP, academic and author, who lived and worked in Britain for many years, responded.