Europe's Jihadi Migrants: Mapping Migrant Involvement in Jihadi Terrorism in Europe (2015-2025)

Muslim migrants constitute a small fraction of Europe’s population, yet they are dramatically overrepresented in jihadist terrorism. This report, based on a dataset covering the past decade, documents this development. Between May 2015 and May 2025, 45% of all jihadi terror plots in Europe featured a migrant. During this period there were 100 migrant-related plots in total, involving 137 migrant plotters. These plots, where they were launched, killed 279 people and injured 1192 others. The vast majority (79%) were carried out by “self-starters” inspired by Islamic State (ISIS), though some (9%) were carried out by ISIS operatives who travelled to Europe from the Middle East for the sole purpose of committing an attack there. Plots were organised in 12 countries, with Germany the most frequent target, followed by France and the United Kingdom. Plotters originated from over 20 countries, most notably Syria, Iraq, Morocco and Tunisia. While the rejection of an asylum application seemed to trigger violence in some cases, almost half of the plotters held some form of protected status in Europe at the time of the plot. Plots spiked in 2017, declined thereafter and then peaked again in 2024.

The dominant academic and media narrative characterises European jihadism as a “homegrown” phenomenon rooted in Western pathologies (lack of integration, alienation, Islamophobia, regime-change wars etc). But this obscures the involvement of foreign-born migrants in jihadist violence in Europe. Indeed, the data reveal a distinct fourth wave of jihadist terrorism that is inextricably linked to mass migration from Muslim-majority countries. While policy discourse tends to focus on the benefits of migration, migrant-related jihadism is assuredly one of its costs and should be explicitly addressed in discussions of migration. Unfortunately, political sensitivity surrounding migration — and the fear of being tarnished as a “far-right” sympathiser or “Islamophobe” — has seriously distorted analysis and hampered effective policymaking. A more honest recognition of this migrant-driven wave would enable policymakers to address the threat more effectively and help contain the populist anger it engenders.