Assessment of the state of the Ukraine War

During the first month of 2023, Russia gained territory in Ukraine for the first time since August 2022. Given the prospect of renewed conflict in the coming months, it is useful to assess the current disposition of the combatants. This assessment shows that current Russian weakness resides in its equipment losses and difficulty in replacing these losses. By contrast, Ukraine’s difficulties reside in its shortage of manpower and its capacity to replace manpower attrition.