Assessment of the state of the Ukraine War June 2023

As of June 9^th, the long-anticipated Ukrainian counterattack appears to have started. From the end of May, Ukrainian activity also intensified on the southern front, and at first, it was unclear whether these are just shaping operations, or already the first wave of the counteroffensive, but by the 9^th of June it has become more and more clear that the counterattack is starting. The obvious aim of the counterattack is to reach the Sea of Azov and cut the Russian-held landbridge to the Crimea. The outcome of this counterattack will be a game-changing event, as its success could make the Crimea an unholdable cauldron, which, given the strategic importance of the Crimea for the Russians, may be sufficient to force Russia to the negotiating table on the terms of the West and Ukraine, as we discussed in our paper on a possible scenario for the end of the war.